February 20, 2016
Cunning Plan is Cunning
Whut?
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Ultimately, the reason we have 'Bulkhead 30'
...and segregated bivouac arrangements....
is not only about professionalism and efficiency...
...but on a more fundamental level, to prevent bringing down the wrath of the gods on one's officer corps.
From episode 19 of GATE where this awkward misunderstanding at the intersection of local customs and common law precedent has nothing whatsoever to do with the epic and tumultuous events happening far from our blissfully unaware heroes. However, it does precipitate a spirited academic debate about the merits of competing methodologies which indirectly leads to our protagonists developing a new appreciation for the importance of keeping informed on current events.
A few things were established in this episode.
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February 17, 2016
Phantom World Episode 7
This episode was just a weird occurrence at the school and was pretty episodic..
However, unlike most stories that mention a certain thought experiment, they got Schrödinger's cat right!
Not only that, but our heroines all turn into catgirls for some reason.
Thus the episode still counts as a win.
This despite the fact that the "problem" is, regrettably, solved. (To our hero's credit, he has nothing to do with that unhappy development.) Additionally, this story may tie somewhat into continuity going forward. We'll find out as we are still enjoying this silly, slightly pretentious, but surprisingly enjoyable show.
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Compare and Contrast
We mentioned yesterday that it looks like the Chinese may be putting their nuclear force on hair-trigger alert.
According to a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, Beijing is considering a small but scary change to the way it stores its nuclear weapons. China may be reversing its decades-old nuclear policy and putting its nuclear weapons on permanent high alert. This would make China's nuclear deterrent more credible, but also heighten the possibility of accidental nuclear war.The full report from the Union of Concerned Scientists is here. As is typical for them their suggestions all involve the U.S. coming off of a strike on warning status. Of course they also think that GMO foods should be banned so take their suggestions with a grain of (iodized) salt.
What is clear, is that China is engaged in a massive modernization of its nuclear forces. Little in the way of specifics is available, but this excerpt of a report from last year gives a good idea of what's in the works. Note that we have NO arms control treaties with China and no joint inspection agreements unlike those we have with Russia, so there is a LOT of room for surprises, particularly on numbers of warheads.
Meanwhile in the U.S.A. It is unclear if this is the hope or the change, but it does seem consequential whichever it might be.
Even before the 10-warhead mega-missile retired, plans were hatched for the Air Force to retrofit MX-like accuracy into remaining land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, called ICBMs.But that never happened. Somewhat amazingly, nearly nobody's noticed.
The Minuteman 3 is about 50 percent less accurate than the less old Peacekeeper missiles which were retired some years ago. The minuteman originally compensated for this by having a 1.2 MEGATON warhead. This was, later supplemented by other missiles with 3 smaller warheads, first the W-62, then the W-78. All the Minuteman missiles with the single Big warhead were retired some years ago and when the Peacekeeper missiles were retired, their mid yield warheads (the fairly modern and much safer W-87) were transferred to the much older Minuteman missiles.
However. The Minuteman missiles were reduced from 3 warheads to 1 each so that they now have about a third the yield of the original Minuteman 1 (and obviously a third the yield they had before the "upgrade"). More significantly, they were supposed to be retrofitted with the much more accurate guidance package of the Peacekeeper missile to compensate for this. However, the Obama administration nixed this along wth several other upgrades to the nuclear arsenal. Thus the ability of these smaller and fewer warheads to deal decisively with a large nation's military is significantly reduced. This is because that while nuclear warheads are very powerful, they still require precise placement to take out a hardened bunker or missile silo, this is especially true with the much fewer and smaller warheads currently deployed.
It gets worse:
Ironically, Carter and the nation's commander in chief, President Obama, may be unaware that the U.S. arsenal cannot actually accomplish what's enshrined in the nuclear-contingency blueprints they've approved, according to defense sources. The promise of greater accuracy for the land-based missiles reportedly helped lay the groundwork for reductions in the 2011 New START agreement between Washington and Moscow, and many have assumed the precision now exists.
It's conceivable, strangely enough, that the Kremlin has already taken stock of the U.S. targeting deficiency. Considerable data about the capabilities of U.S. Air Force and Navy ballistic missiles can be found in open sources and online.
I suspect that neither the word "Ironically", nor the phrase "strangely enough" is being used properly in that quote.
Note that one of the many hurdles to rectifying this is fears of civil service job security.
But the ICBM program headquarters at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, also stands to lose jobs and clout if the advanced accuracy technology is adopted. Repair personnel based at Hill keep busy maintaining the old Minuteman 3 mechanical guidance units, which break down once every three years on average.
By contrast, solid state uses fewer moving parts and can run for 20 years between breakdowns, according to Air Force Research Laboratory data.
Oh...what EVER would we do with a reliable deterrent that didn't break down every three years? Perhaps not reducing our 400 single warhead missiles to...less at any given time.
Of course, it is possible that the old '60s era guidance system is less prone to EMP and hacking and doesn't use the GPS satellites that would be knocked out swiftly in any nuclear attack, so perhaps commercial off the shelf upgrades are not actually the panacea that the article suggests. The blue-screen of ATOMIC death should be limited to Cherenkov radiation on a CCTV.
An extensive overview of hypothesized scenarios and effects involved in a China-U.S. Nuclear exchange can be found here. Note that this study is from a few years ago and does not take into recent Chinese developments and assumes that the U.S. actually upgraded the Minuteman guidance to render it effective against hardened targets.
The calculus in these matters for a totalitarian dictatorship or oligarchy is vastly different than a representative republic. The possibility that a large nation which places a low value on human life might think that they can "take the hit" and deal a death blow to an adversary should not be ignored, especially since the vastly reduced numbers of active nukes in the world mean that a nuclear war today would not be a global extinction event. This, ironically could increase the possibility of these terrible weapons use. As such our deterrent should be as robust and credible as possible.
UPDATE: And in other nuclear news...
UPDATE: And in other nuclear news...
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February 16, 2016
Is a Red Guard in a Grey Suit of No Concern?
One troubling kerfuffle that is getting short shrift outside of right leaning blogs. involves a small time author who got cut by his publisher because his villains motivations were impolitic. This says more about the publisher than anything else, and it would be a non story, if not for the reports of the very pervasive nature of a monoculture in a lot of the publishing industry.
One argument that I hear regarding stories like this is that it is not news and there is nothing wrong with it because the 'policing' is being done by a corporation and it's not a government doing the censoring, so it's not actually censorship.
By that logic, the Hayes Code and the Comics Code Authority which were instituted not by the government, but by trade associations and agreements between corporations were just peachy keen. Even the Hollywood Blacklist, though initially a reaction to contempt of congress citations, was not a government pogrom but was initiated voluntarily by the studios. If that sort of thing appeals to you then fine, enjoy your homeowners association and live happily in your chosen dystopia. However, for the rest of us, when virtual monopoly that controls a good chunk of public discourse silences viewpoints the effect can be the same in many ways as a government doing it. The differences can be reduced further when these entities quietly collude with the government in suppressing viewpoints. Of course, having the government barge in and force these entities to allow the speech they are banning would unambiguously be a 1st amendment violation. However, the situation as it is developing is deeply troubling. Thus it is wise to ensure that people are aware of these things and encourage alternate venues for online socialization and different outlets for publication.
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Wait. Umm..What?
Oh...
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News That Doesn't Concern The Trumped-up Trump-Centric Trumpeting of Trumpism by the Trumpen Proletariat
For many of us who grew up in the later stages of the Cold War, the region known as the Fulda Gap was a tidbit of geography that carried special meaning. Today the Sulwaki Gap seems to be replacing it in the atlas of dread.
Map Via
I momentarily misread this as "Vladimir Putin Wants to Destroy Naruto" and was perplexed, but not alarmed...alas. The article lays out a scenario where Turkey, intervening in Syria, exchanges fire with the Russians and the Russians hit a facility inside Turkey. This is not at all unlikely since the two nations are historical enemies, are currently at cross purposes in Syria and have recently exchanged fire with lethal results. The goal from the Russian perspective would be to destroy NATO's credibility should they refuse to come to Turkey's aid when Turkey invokes article 5 of the NATO charter. If Russian can secure the Hellespont, they will have achieved one of their primary goals of the last 300 years....so their motivation is great, perhaps great enough that the risk of WW3 seems worth it to them.
That Russia (like China) has numerous domestic problems, does not make the risk of their engaging in ambitious foreign adventures necessarily unlikely. Such circumstances can have the opposite effect.
The mess in Syria is already disturbingly international in nature. The Washington Post goes so far as to call it a 'mini world war'. While that is certainly hyperbole, the number of nations invested in the outcome of this squalid mess has the potential to widen its reach.
Elsewhere in the Middle East the Iran Deal so doggedly sought by the current administration appears to be bearing fruit.
"We see signs that countries in the Arab world are preparing to acquire nuclear weapons, that they are not willing to sit quietly with Iran on brink of a nuclear or atomic bomb,"
Pivoting to Asia for a bit reveals that China is putting MIRVs on its big DF-5 ICBMs. This is surprising mainly in that the Chinese seem to be keeping the old missiles in service despite the existence of the new Road Mobile DF-41. Most likely the very large throw weight of the liquid fueled DF-5 is a factor. The Middle Kingdom also seems to be putting its nuclear forces on an alert footing...this is not a short term mobilization but a larger change in policy regarding how their deterrent is handled.
China is also equipping its "scientific research stations" on the Philippine reefs it has turned into islands with impressive AAA/ABM missile systems...no doubt for launching sounding rockets.
Meanwhile...In South Korea...
Won Yoo Chul, floor leader for the ruling Saenuri party, on Monday said South Korea should adopt "peaceful†nuclear weapons and missiles against North Korea’s "fearful and self-destructive†ones.He said South Korea should be independent from ally Washington’s so-called nuclear umbrella to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat, or reconsider deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn from South Korea in 1992 under a pact for the denuclearization of the peninsula.
Fecklessness...the gift that just keeps on giving.
On the economic front, Kyle Bass, who was something of a Cassandra with regard to the bursting of the 2008 financial bubble is now saying the saying similar things about China...except that he expects it to be far worse than 2008.
Silly Cassandra...I'm sure the powers that be would tell us if something were up.
In other news...well intentioned hippies should write in English or Spanish...I'm just sayin'.
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February 14, 2016
RWBY Season 3 Ends
I'm not sure how to react to that. Astonishment will have to do for now.
This final episode did not exactly end the series on an happy and upbeat note in much the same way that sticking ones hand in boiling fry oil will not exactly result in relief from sunburn. However it did provide the audience with surprises and emotional gravity in copious amounts.
The ending of this leaves several issues unresolved and lays the groundwork for either another season (or perhaps a sequel series).
If, as seems likely, that comes to pass, then rest assured, we're going to give it a try.
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February 13, 2016
Oh Hell
Supreme Court Justice Antonine Scalia was just found dead.
Crap. Just ...Crap.
As Instapundit notes,
WELL, THIS UPS THE STAKES
Rather understated; that Instapundit fellow.
more...
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And She Can Drive Too
From Episode 18 of GATE, a series where Leilei has, until recently, mainly to her laconic mannerisms, been something of a background character. A competent apprentice mage with a knack for languages, she has been absolutely vital to the progression of the story, having acted as interpreter, had enough on the ball to inquire about the dragon scales and add her knowledge and the authority that comes with her status to the group's tookit. Leili finally got to shine in a big way last episode when she turned the tide in the fight against the dragon. .
Now, despite her very young age, she's going to a city of mages where she is going to attempt to give what amounts to a dissertation in front of a group of elders and gain the title of Master Mage. (Some time ago, she got her hands on a middle school chemistry book and learned the basics of covalent bonds...her demonstration should be entertaining).
Meanwhile, Itami, got sacked and relieved of his command (for abandoning his post to kill the dragon...despite the wink and the nod he received prior) . He was also presented with multiple medals, awards as well as titles of nobility (and a slave girl!?) from the locals. Itami is told to just "go out and explore". He is to keep reconnoitering the new world paying special attention to its resources. Thus he decides to accompany Leili on her journey since she's really useful to have around a city of mages sounds potentially facinating and rich in a resource that warrants some study. Rory is along because, I gather, she wants to desecrate a local shrine and the jeep beats walking, Yao insists on coming because she's the aforementioned slave girl (WTF!?). Tuka tags along for...reasons. Leili brings a letter of recommendation from her teacher which is sufficiently glowing to get her an audience.
The result of this is that the group is nowhere NEAR the Imperial capital when Princes Penã throws a diplomatic soiree involving the Emperor and a bunch of minor characters that successfully kicks off the peace talks. With our heroes, the chaos magnets, on the other side of the Empire, and the Japanese ambassador and Penã overseeing the event, odds seem pretty good that nothing can go wron...
Meanwhile, Itami, got sacked and relieved of his command (for abandoning his post to kill the dragon...despite the wink and the nod he received prior) . He was also presented with multiple medals, awards as well as titles of nobility (and a slave girl!?) from the locals. Itami is told to just "go out and explore". He is to keep reconnoitering the new world paying special attention to its resources. Thus he decides to accompany Leili on her journey since she's really useful to have around a city of mages sounds potentially facinating and rich in a resource that warrants some study. Rory is along because, I gather, she wants to desecrate a local shrine and the jeep beats walking, Yao insists on coming because she's the aforementioned slave girl (WTF!?). Tuka tags along for...reasons. Leili brings a letter of recommendation from her teacher which is sufficiently glowing to get her an audience.
The result of this is that the group is nowhere NEAR the Imperial capital when Princes Penã throws a diplomatic soiree involving the Emperor and a bunch of minor characters that successfully kicks off the peace talks. With our heroes, the chaos magnets, on the other side of the Empire, and the Japanese ambassador and Penã overseeing the event, odds seem pretty good that nothing can go wron...
Almost nothing can go wrong when two very different societies meet and one has no concept of a statute of limitations and considers giving a necklace to a 12 year old girl a contractual promise to marry.
Also Leili has a sister.
Next week: Hijinks ensue.
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Puddles
Puddles are an under appreciated menace in our modern world. They can contain all manner of perils such as typhoid, cholera, water moccasins, brain eating amoebas, mosquitoes, industrial pollutants, snapping turtles, leeches, trench foot, ducks, Guinea Worms...portals.
Portals in puddles portend a parade of peril to people predisposed to perplexity
From Episode 6 of Myriad Colors Phantom World, which is titled Kurumi and the Teddy Bear Kingdom and, astonishingly enough, is exactly what it says on the tin.
You have found the intersection of cuteness and existential dread.
Even by the standards of this show this is an unexpectedly odd story, but actually works beautifully and has a surprising amount of character development in it. This series definitely warrants further attention.
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February 10, 2016
Just in Case
...that you, gentle reader, have (for some reason) any interest in happenings that do not involve the presidential primary, here are a couple of things that seem to be getting short shrift.
That DPRK satellite has stopped tumbling and is seems to have stabilized its orbit. Amateur radio operators should be able to pick up the songs it's allegedly transmitting using information here (via). If it's working, it should sound just like this....but different. In other news from The Hermit Kingdom, it looks like they are going to pop another nuke soon, and another rocket may be being readied along their west coast. One interesting idea about why the sudden surge of tests is happening can be read here. In short, the idea is that these are to shore up domestic confidence in the countries military capabilities so that a major set of reforms and liberalization can be enacted during the upcoming Communist Party Congress. This sounds...optimistic, but they did just execute the head of the North Korean Military, so maybe their nukes are a sign of really militant dovishness rather than a nuclear armed, crazy nation being crazy. In this context the recent recommissioning of a plutonium enrichment center is a particularly cunning way to ensure that when they do spring peace on us, it will be a surprise.
While there are many foreign policy decisions that the current administration deserves...credit...for, he intervention in Libya looks to be one of the most....consequential. Not only is the no-man's land once known as Libya torn asunder by a civil war, but it also has become the home to a "province" of ISIS.
It get's better...It appears that ISIS may have absconded with the stocks of chemical weapons that were in that countries arsenal. The Sarin is obviously the greatest concern here, since ISIS is already making and using Mustard Gas and Chlorine.
One of the biggest shipping countries in the world, Moller-Maersk has slipped into the red.
Mark Gilbert has more news from the shipping industry.
Let's start with goods carried by train in the U.S. Since the middle of last March, carloads of agricultural products, chemicals, coal, metals, autos and other goods have declined every week:
On the bright side, the category "unaccompanied minors" is not suffering nearly as much.
I have no idea what this means but the words "Banking", "Crisis" and "Scarier" are in the headline, so it might belong here. This certainly does.
Someone at Vox, having talked to experts and run the numbers has decided that the chances of a war with Russia are only 11% which probably represent the most optimistic numbers in this entire post so we'll ignore that it's Vox and leave on an upbeat note.
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February 07, 2016
This Evening: On a VERY Special Episode of RWBY
Art by Dashing Ice Cream
That was an impressive 17 minutes.
I...think I'm going to have to watch that again.
Whether the penultimate episode of RWBY is actually good will be determined next week. However, this was certainly a riveting continuation of last week's episode that thrilled the fans in completely unexpected ways.
Given the highly consequential nature of the last few episodes for the characters as well as their world, it is not entirely clear that there will be a season four...
We are waiting with baited breath for next week.
Please avail yourself of the spoiler tags in the comments.
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February 06, 2016
Cherry Blossom Island
They still call this mountain by that name, even though the huge 1914 eruption rendered it a peninsula. Eruptions on Sakurajima are not unusual. However, given its location, every time this mountain burps it is a cause for some concern.
They still call this mountain by that name, even though the huge 1914 eruption rendered it a peninsula. Eruptions on Sakurajima are not unusual. However, given its location, every time this mountain burps it is a cause for some concern.
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February 05, 2016
Even The Most Stoic
...are permitted a moment of well deserved satisfaction when they are achieving a moment of trancendental magnificence...
From episode 17 of GATE, where we are reminded that Leili's name can be found in the dictionary next to 'Win', 'Bodacious', and 'Arete'.
That was a thoroughly satisfying battle.
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Why Japan Still Has Payphones
When our protagonist got the call from Ruru (Lulu?) I immediately asked myself how the hell the 12 inch tall genie got a cellphone, and if it's magical how does she connect to...oh...
I've heard of a hair-shirt, but a hair-wallet is new to me.
From the latest episode of MC Phantom World, which is another in a string of character background stories, but this one felt much less like a discrete, stand alone tale as it not only references previous episodes, but manages to intersect with what appears to be the larger plot.
A ferocious but poorly drawn dragon is menacing middle school chicken-coops and rabbit hutches and our heroes are...unaware of the situation actually since no one would trust them with this assignment. However, due to a series unrelated misunderstandings they manage to thoroughly screw things up anyway and end up trying to come to the rescue of the young lady assigned to their school's lepus lounge and save the bunnies...
Things do not go as anticipated
The little girl's teddy bear is a kaiju and saves their collective ass.I'm convinced that the club advisor is manipulating the protagonists, whether for good or ill remains to be seen.
The story seems to be back on track and resuming its quirky and occasionally thoughtful direction. If we can avoid a Maudlin episode about the loli I think we'll be fine.
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February 04, 2016
Yet More Thoughts on That Non-Gargantuan Nork Nuke
Business Insider is reporting that the claim by the North Koreans that they conducted an H-Bomb test may indeed be something more than a crate of commie kimchee. For one thing, recent analysis of the seismological data indicates that the detonation was actually much deeper than was initially supposed (more than twice the depth of the previous tests). There seem to be other indicators as well, that this was a test related to specific components used in an H-bomb, though officials are a tad coy about specifics, about how they have come to this conclusion or what components they might be. One interesting fact is that air samples aren't detecting any radioactives, which could mean that the DPRK is getting better at preventing any venting. (I suppose it is also possible that they popped of between 7 and 10 thousand tons of TNT; that's not without precedence but there doesn't seem to be any reason to do that as they clearly do have atomic weapons). There is more on this test here and here. American tests that tested H-bomb components prior to the first official H-bomb (Ivy-Mike) included Greenhouse-George. That test (and not Ivy-Mike) was was actually the first thermonuclear burn, though its fusion yield was far less that its fission yield. It was a proof of concept test and could well be what is being implied for the North Korean test. Something along those lines would make North Korean claims about the test substantively true.
Note that the Buisness insider piece also has this to say....
As Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear historian at the Steven Institute of Technology and creator of Nuke Map, told Business Insider on January 6, a country that's mastered thermonuclear-weapons design suddenly has a number of possible options open to it.For instance, a country with a thermonuclear capability could build "a very thin-cased bomb of low yield [in this case 1 to 10 kilotons, or 1,000 to 10,000 tons of TNT] that would emit a lot of radiation relative to its blast power."
This jives somewhat with what we posted on the subject last month, though the assumption here is that this was just a proof of concept test, and not (as Nigel Cook suggests) a test of an operational device.
In another area of weapons technology, the North Koreans have an indisputably operational unconventional weapons system, though in this case a minimal amount of R&D was required since the technology involved is quite mature, or, shall we say, quite ripe.
While the threat of these other weapons is somewhat limited, any country that bombards its neighbors with profanity-filled, exploding poop-balloons is bat-scat bonkers enough that its nuclear arsenal, however modest, should warrant considerable concern.
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February 02, 2016
Politics Intrudes
"Oh PLEASE not that! I don't wanna get doxxed and Tweeted and fired and..."
No worries, we'll put it below the fold.
(No one will ever know.)
more...
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January 31, 2016
OK This Episode Finally Did It
We've stuck with RWBY for a while, despite the infinitesimal budget...
...the sometimes clumsy plotting....
...the breaks in production...
... and the dorks.
There have been some good characterizations to be sure...
There have been some good characterizations to be sure...
...that reason we've spent spent 5 hours of our lives watching this damned show...
...IS BECAUSE IT ROCKS!
My oh my! They've got two more episodes to screw up this season, but damned if they didn't do good by this one.
Aside from one awkward edit, the only gripe about this episode is that the next one is about 80 hours away.
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Life's Unexpected Detours
This happy bunny lady is Delilah.
Well, this is certainly full of surprises...well except for the dragon. We were quite prepared for there to be a really big dragon in this episode.
This week on GATE we are treated to a moment of introspection.
Delilah was one of the beast-girl maids/bodyguards from Italica who was sent to Alnus to provide security and translation assistance. She stayed in Alnus and has since opened an inn and tavern, which she seems to own a majority stake in, though it is an open secret that she's Italica's unnofical eyes and really big ears in the town. Delilah has a reputation of being something of a hard-ass despite her cottontail. You see, she takes no guff from anyone and runs her employees hard in order to make sure that inn she is proprietor of is well run and free of creeps. despite (and partly because of) this she is liked and respected in Alnus and her fastidiousness has paid off; her inn being quite successful.
Today...It hit her.
Mere months ago she was a maid and bodyguard in Italica, which as a slave and member of one of the "subject races" was about the best she could ever hope for. Now she owns a business. She can own property, keep nearly all of the money she makes while living in a town where the food and water are safe. Alnus is also completely safe from raiders and monsters. The various demi-humans in town are treated as PEOPLE and the citizens are not worked to death in mines or other hard labor and peace is breaking out all over.
Reflecting upon this, Delilah, perhaps for the first time in the many years since her country of origin was conquered, finally relaxes...and skips through the streets of Alnus singing the praises of "the town the sky has smiled upon".
Life is good...
Though not without its pitfalls...
Well, this is certainly full of surprises...well except for the dragon. We were quite prepared for there to be a really big dragon in this episode.
This show is genuinely interesting. I am quite glad that, unlike some other people, I have not seen the manga, so I do not feel let down and this show's future is an unlit road for me.
I think now is a good point in the show for those of us who have not read ahead to ponder and speculate on what we know:
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